摘要在经济全球化的大背景下，对外直接投资与出口贸易成为参与国际市场的两个重要组成部分。自改革开放以来，我国对外直接投资的水平与出口贸易的水平都得到了显著的提高。而国际的局势并非一成不变，世界正在面临新的转型趋势，如何协调发展对外直接与对外贸易的关系，使它们相互影响发挥出最大的作用，推动本国经济的发展，具有深远的现实意义。
我国是制造业大国，制造业又是我国国民经济的“支柱产业”，对我国的国民经济发挥着着至关重要的作用.那么在全球经济化的大背景下，制造业如何“走出去”并且结合出口更好地“走出去”，是制造行业现阶段面临的一个重要的问题。52875
出口贸易效应分为出口规模效应与出口结构效应。基于此，本文首先阐述了对外直接投资与出口规模效应的相关研究现状，研究现状中既包括二者的互补关系，也包括二者的替代关系。接着就对外直接投资对出口的结构效应的理论研究现状以及实证研究现状进行概括性阐述。本文接着对中国制造业对外投资与出口的现状进行分析，为接下来的实证分析部分以及最后的检验打下基础。
随后本文开展了两个实证分析。第一个实证分析用一元回归的方式，研究制造业对外直接投资与出口之间的关系。在此基础上，将制造行业分为低技术行业、中等技术行业以高技术行业业，进一步运用多元回归的分析方法研究制造业对外直接投资对于不同类型的制造行业的出口的关系。研究结果表明，制造业整体行业来说，对外直接投资与出口表现出正向相关的关系，即对外直接投资对出口具有促进作用。进一步实证分析的结果为制造业对外直接投资对高技术行业的出口的正向促进作用最强；与中等技术行业的出口也存在相关性，但是相关性较弱；而与低技术行业的出口则表现出了负相关性。即对外直接投资能够优化出口结构。
Abstract: In the context of economic globalization,outward foreign direct investment(OFDI) and outward trade has become two important factors of participating in the international market. Since the beginning of the reform and opening up, the levels of OFDI and export of our country have been significantly improved. While the international market is not set in stone, world economic is facing a new transformation.How to coordinate with the OFDI?How to take advantage them for the optimal benefits? Those are all critical issues and have profound meaning to fix them for our economy
China is a manufacturing country and manufacturing industry plays a essential role in economy, which is called as “national economy pillar industry”. Therefore the subject of manufacturing “gong out” combing with outward trade under the background of economic globalization is also important theme.
Export trade effect includes two parts: export scale trade effect and export structure trade export. Based on this, this paper first explains the studies of export scale trade effect, including the complementary relationship and the replacement relationship. Then paper explains the export structure trade export, which contains theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. After that, paper analyze the situation in manufacturing OFDI and export in China,making foundation for the next empirical analysis and final testing.
This paper performs two empirical analyses both using regression methods. The first focuses on export scale trade effect the OFDI causes in manufacturing .the second one pides manufacturing industry into three parts:low-tech industry, middle-tech industry and high-tech industry and then to study the relationship between export structure trade export and OFDI in manufacturing.The results show:(1) OFDI can promote export in long term, while block the export in short term. (2)OFDI has the strongest positive correlation with high-tech industry, weak positive correlation with middle-tech industry and the negative correlation with low-tech industry. So OFDI can improve the export structure in manufacturing. 中国制造业对外直接投资出口贸易效应研究:http://www.751com.cn/jingji/lunwen_56920.html